Bangkok 19 Jul-Center for International Trade Studies University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce "Analysis of Thai exports in the second half of 2023: under political uncertainty" reiterates that if the government does not receive more than August, dragging exports in 2023 with a negative high of 2.5% and encountering many external negative factors
Associate Professor Dr. At Pisanwanich, Director of the Center for International Trade Studies University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has analyzed the direction of Thai exports in 2023 and the second half of 2023 under risk factors and factors to be monitored The analysis results are divided into 2 cases as follows: 1. If the new government is established within August 2023, it is expected that the value of Thai exports to the world market in 2023 will be worth 283,738 million US dollars. The forecast period is between 282,038-289,422 million US dollars, or a contraction of -1.2%, with the second half of 2023 expected to be worth 142,244 million US dollars, or an increase of 3.1%.
2. If the new government is not formed by August 2023, it is expected that the value of Thai exports to the world market in 2023 will be worth 279,891 million US dollars, or shrinking -2.5% and the second half of 2023 is expected to be was valued at 138,398 million US dollars, or an increase of 0.3%.
The important risk factors and factors to be monitored are as follows: The risk factors include
1. The global economy and key trading partners slowed down.
2. China's economy may grow less than 5%
3. Politics that are not clear due to the delay in the establishment of the government
4. Higher unemployment rates of partner countries
5. Fluctuating currency due to high US Federal Reserve interest rates and have the opportunity to adjust
6. El Niño affects agricultural exports
7. Crude oil prices may rise due to OPEC production cuts.
While the factors to be monitored are:
1. High production costs such as electricity, energy and wages
2. Inflation or Disinflation
3. Geopolitical problems
4. Protracted Russo-Ukrainian War
5. Reducing dependence on the dollar (De-Dollarization), etc.-Thai News Agency
Source: Thai News Agency