Taiwan’s dependent population will outnumber its working population earlier than previously forecast, according to a report released by the National Development Council on Monday.

In its latest biennial report, the government’s top planning agency maintained its forecast of Taiwan becoming a “super-aged society” — with 20 percent of the population 65 or older — in 2025.

The working population, however, is expected to become smaller than the dependent population by 2060, four years earlier than predicted in the 2020 report.

The revision reflected both a higher estimate of the senior population and a lower estimate of working-aged people in Taiwan by 2060 than were previously projected, according to the report.

The working population refers to people aged 15-64, while those below and above the working age are considered to be dependents. The ratio of dependents to working-age people was 42.2 to 100 (or 1 to 2.37) in 2022, the council said in the report.

That ratio will go up to 53.2 to 100 in 2030 and then hit 1:1 in 2060, the council predicted.

Meanwhile, the council maintained its view that people of working age will fall to two-thirds of the total population by 2028, putting a heavier burden on society and those aged 15-64 who have to support the dependent population.

In 2022, around 16.3 million of people in Taiwan are of working age, but the number is projected to fall to 15.07 million in 2030 and 7.76 million in 2070, according to the council.

The portion of people aged 45-64 is forecast to rise from 43.3 percent in 2022 to 48.8 percent in 2070, the council said.

Sounding the alarm has been the precipitous fall in Taiwan’s crude birth rate the past two years, to record lows of 7.01 per 1,000 in 2020 and 6.55 per 1,000 in 2021, and it continued to lag in the first seven months of 2022, further stoking fears of a population implosion.

In response to Taiwan’s rapidly aging society, the council said measures needed to be taken to improve the crude birth rate and to bring seniors and women back into the workforce.

Existing immigration policies also need to be reviewed to expand the supply of workers, and a more comprehensive care system should be established to help seniors become more independent and capable of looking after themselves and others, the council suggested.

Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel