Economic Impact of Taiwan Strait Conflict Could Exceed WWII’s, Says AIT Chief

Taipei: A conflict across the Taiwan Strait could inflict an economic cost greater than that of World War II, American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene said Wednesday.

According to Focus Taiwan, Greene made the remarks in a keynote address at the 2026 Taipei Security Dialogue, organized by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank funded by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Greene emphasized that to deter a conflict, Taiwan doesn't need to demonstrate an outright victory in war. Instead, the focus should be on convincing potential adversaries of the immense challenges in landing and sustaining a large ground force on Taiwan's rugged and urbanized terrain, separated by about 145 kilometers of turbulent water.

Greene highlighted that preventing such a conflict is a top priority for the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Washington aims to achieve this goal through high-level diplomacy, increasing its presence and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, particularly along the First Island Chain, and supporting Taiwan's efforts to bolster its self-defense capabilities.

He also pointed to an upcoming U.S.-China summit on September 24 in Washington, D.C., as a key opportunity to advance strategic stability. The summit is expected to focus on fairness and reciprocity while aiming to reduce the risk of misunderstandings and misperceptions between the two nations.

Greene dismissed claims that Taiwan's efforts to strengthen its deterrence could be seen as provocative or that the U.S. support for Taiwan's defense preparations signifies a policy shift.