Taipei: Three Taiwanese NGOs conducted a tabletop exercise on Tuesday simulating significant escalations in Chinese military activities around Taiwan in 2030. The exercise included scenarios such as Chinese navy ships intruding into Taiwan's territorial waters.

According to Focus Taiwan, the two-day exercise focused primarily on China's "gray zone" activities, which are coercive actions that stop short of open conflict. It was jointly hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation, the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security, and the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies (CSWS), a research institute. The event featured several former defense officials, including former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min, retired United States Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, former United States Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, former Japanese Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Shigeru Iwasaki, and former Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Tomohisa Takei.

Participants were divided into a guidance team, a control team, and four teams representing Taiwan, China, the United States, and Japan. CSWS Chairman Alexander Huang noted that the scenarios were set in 2030, assuming Taiwan had received all the weapons purchased from the United States. To encourage candid discussions, organizers requested that journalists not attribute any remarks made during the event.

In the initial phase of the exercise, China was depicted crossing the outer boundary of Taiwan's territorial waters, 12 nautical miles from its shore. This was set against a backdrop of frequent high-level visits between Taiwan and the U.S., despite Beijing's protests, and social unrest across China due to a slowing economy. Team Taiwan's response included deploying Coast Guard and Navy vessels to shadow the intruders and positioning submarines in strategic zones.

Crucially, Taiwan opted not to open fire at the intruders, adhering to the principle of not firing the first shot to avoid starting a war. Team U.S. indicated it would enhance intelligence sharing and deterrence by moving forces from Guam or Sasebo, Japan, into the region but refrained from deploying troops on the ground in Taiwan. They advised that Taiwan might need to use force to expel Chinese intruders but must issue advance warnings to avoid escalating tensions into an all-out war.

A Control Team member with a military background suggested Team Taiwan might have overreacted, questioning the necessity of deploying submarines for the level of threat presented. He raised concerns about Taiwan's potential response to more significant threats, such as a surprise attack disguised as a military exercise, similar to the one following then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022.

The exercise underscored the need for Taiwan's government and military to consider effective responses to coercive threats while conserving forces to withstand initial attacks.