Taiwan is set to replace South Korea as the country with the world’s lowest fertility rate by 2035, according to a report by the National Development Council (NDC).
Taiwan’s total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children women have during their childbearing years — dropped to a historic low of 0.90 in 2010 because it was the Year of the Tiger, which is considered inauspicious for births in the Chinese lunar calendar. It also followed 2009 which was an inauspicious year for marriage, according to Chinese superstition, as detailed in the report.
Although the TFR in Taiwan rebounded to 1.1 in 2011, it again fell below 1 to 0.99 in 2020 and 0.98 in 2021, but still remained higher than in South Korea and Hong Kong, according to the NDC.
However, it is forecast that the fertility rate for 2022, which is again the Year of the Tiger, could fall to a historic low of 0.89.
Thereafter, although Taiwan’s TFR is expected to rise slightly and reach 1.12 by 2035, that will still be lower than the 1.18 forecast in South Korea. As a result, Taiwan will have the world’s lowest TFR, according to the NDC report.
In addition, the report also indicated that although the share of the population in Taiwan aged 15 to 64 is still at its peak, it is set to decline rapidly.
Starting in 2056, the proportion of the population in this age group will be lower than in major countries and only slightly higher than that in South Korea. From 2060, the share will fall below 50 percent of Taiwan’s population, it added.
Currently, the age group comprises about 70 percent of the total population, according to the NDC.
Issues derived from the low birth rate in Taiwan are also likely to impact the labor market and social care, according to the NDC.
In addition to pushing higher the median age of the population, the low birth rate will cause a decline in the ratio of the working-age population and could also lead to a shortage of workers, while increasing the burden on the younger generations who support the dependent population, according to the report.
In Taiwan, the dependency ratio, a measure of the number of dependents aged 0 to 14 and over the age of 65, compared with the total population aged 15 to 64, has been rising year after year since 2012 and is forecast to continue to increase as the population aged 65 years and older rapidly increases.
The dependency ratio was 42.2 this year but is expected to exceed 100 by 2060, according to the report.
In terms of the ratio of working-age population to seniors, while Taiwan has four people of working age for every senior in 2022, it will have only 1.1 workers per senior by 2070, based on the report.

Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel