Taipei: The United States and China are entering a phase of “managed rivalry,” as both nations aim to stabilize their relationship without resolving fundamental disagreements, according to Taiwan’s former representative to the U.S., Stanley Kao. During a seminar in Taipei focused on global geopolitical shifts, Kao compared the current U.S.-China relationship to a closely contested baseball game, specifically mentioning the Los Angeles Dodgers’ extra-innings win against the Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series. He noted the uncertainty of the situation’s outcome.

According to Focus Taiwan, Kao highlighted the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, suggesting the two countries are moving towards a “new cold peace” rather than a “new cold war.” This transition reflects a willingness to compromise on smaller issues while maintaining firm stances on more significant matters. Lien Hsien-ming, president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, described the outcome of the Xi-Trump talks as a “strategic truce,” anticipating ongoing conflict despite Trump’s decision to lift the rare earth blockade and China’s agreement to purchase a substantial quantity of U.S. soybeans.

Lien further noted that China appears more prepared for Trump’s second term, evident in Beijing’s resistance to tariff threats in 2025. Meanwhile, Kuo Yu-jen, vice president of the Institute for National Policy Research, observed that both nations are undergoing domestic political adjustments. Trump is facing a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, while Xi has completed the Fourth Plenary Session and is planning for the “Two Sessions” next March.

Kuo mentioned that after multiple negotiation rounds, both countries recognize the economic and trade risks associated with reciprocal sanctions and high tariffs, leading to an “orderly decoupling” phase. This geopolitical shift is also marked by a decline in multilateralism. James W.Y. Wang, an associate professor at National Chi Nan University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies, indicated that the failure of the East Asia Summit to issue a joint statement on regional security highlights the diminishing effectiveness of multilateral alliances, which are being replaced by bilateral partnerships.

Echoing this sentiment, Kuo noted that the trend toward bilateral agreements began around 2017 when Trump questioned the effectiveness of multilateral organizations. INPR President Tien Hung-mao suggested that Taiwan should adapt its strategy towards Southeast Asia and other regions, focusing on specific goals aligned with regional security and trade cooperation. Lien emphasized the importance of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry as a strategic advantage, urging confidence in its impact on U.S.-China relations.