The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is monitoring the war in Ukraine, while making adjustments to its plans to unite Taiwan by force and increasing its capabilities to do so, which requires the United States to remain vigilant, a high-ranking U.S. military officer said Monday.

“The PRC is undoubtedly watching what’s happened in Ukraine, taking notes, and learning from it,” said U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel J. Paparo.

“And there will be learning and there will be adjustments to the extent that they’re able to learn from it. And they will improve their capabilities based on what they learn at this time,” said Paparo in response to a question raised by CNA at a roundtable discussion with Washington-based correspondents from Indo-Pacific countries.

Paparo had been asked by CNA whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has been met with stronger-than-expected resistance and sanctions by the U.S., the EU, and countries in the Indo-Pacific including Taiwan, would cause China to hesitate if it were to think about taking Taiwan by force.

CNA also asked about the “Davidson window of six years,” the prediction made in March 2021 by Admiral Philip Davidson, the then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, that China could invade Taiwan within the next six years, to which Paparo responded that this was highly unpredictable.

“What’s called the ‘Davidson window’ is actually based on open source speeches made by leaders from the PRC itself,” said Paparo.

“There’re many, many complex factors that would play into a PRC decision to attempt to unify Taiwan by force to the mainland itself, and I think it requires constant vigilance,” he said.

Paparo said that some people may hold the view that the U.S. can relax or relent on its own commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, on its own commitment in the Department of Defense to the Taiwan Relations Act, to the “Six Assurances, ” and to the three U.S.-China communiques, but he “would not support that” because “nature is so unpredictable.”

The TRA was enacted in 1979 to maintain commercial, cultural, and other unofficial relations between the U.S. and Taiwan after Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. The TRA also requires the U.S. “to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character.”

The Six Assurances, which were given by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan to Taiwan in 1982, include pledges not to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan, not to hold prior consultations with China regarding arms sales to Taiwan, and not to play a mediation role between Taiwan and China.

Paparo said that there were many factors involved in what decisions China would make.

Therefore, he would be loath to say or to do anything that would relieve the urgency to prepare, to uphold the international rules based order and to uphold the U.S.’ commitment for the defense of Taiwan, if there were an effort to unify Taiwan by force, Paparo said.

Paparo was then asked what he saw as the main weak points in Taiwan’s military that the country needs to work on to stand a better chance of repelling China.

If war were to break out across the Taiwan Strait, it would require a comprehensive effort to defend throughout the battle space beginning in the straits themselves, to the beaches, and then from mountain pass to mountain pass, and Taiwan must make itself a hard-to-target dynamic force that can spur society to defend itself, he said.

Paparo said he gave Taiwan tremendous credit for seeing the comprehensive nature of executing its own defense. “I am seeing that philosophy suffuse the Taiwan government in seeing the urgency of preparing themselves to do so,” he said.

Asked if he shared the view made by Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton in an interview with Australia’s Nine News aired Monday that there is a potential for conflict within the region in just a couple of years, Paparo said he always operated under the notion “because of the incredible unpredictability of events.”

Tensions have risen over the last few years, he said, adding that the formation of AUKUS in 2021, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the U.S., was a tangible sign of those rising tensions.

Paparo said Australia had experienced firsthand attempts at coercion over the last few years, and this had driven more cooperative deployments among “free nations” for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel