Taipei: The increase in both Taiwan’s military capabilities and willingness to defend itself makes it “much more likely” the United States will come to its aid in the event of Chinese aggression, former head of the U.S. Pacific Command Dennis Blair said Wednesday. Blair, who is in Taipei for a civilian-organized tabletop exercise in which he is a participant, was responding to a reporter asking team leaders of the exercise to gauge U.S. willingness to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

According to Focus Taiwan, Blair emphasized that two factors will influence a U.S. president’s decision on whether to help defend Taiwan against a Chinese military invasion: how the conflict starts and whether Taiwan has the ability and willingness to defend itself. The second factor, in particular, would “have a great deal of effect” on whether the United States would become involved or not, Blair noted.

Blair, who has been visiting Taiwan for the past 20 years and participating in Taiwanese exercises, observed that Taiwan’s ability and willingness to defend against Chinese aggression has been increasing. He suggested that these improvements make it much more likely that the United States would come to Taiwan’s assistance if needed.

Blair referenced pledges by former U.S. President Joe Biden and a recent remark by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as indications of the U.S.’ commitment to Taiwan’s defense. These comments suggest that the U.S. would resort to military force to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

The former U.S. national intelligence chief also mentioned the Taiwan Relations Act, which states that the U.S. will ensure Taiwan has sufficient defense capabilities and considers any effort to determine Taiwan’s future by non-peaceful means a matter of “grave concern.” Blair indicated that such scenarios might involve U.S. military intervention.

However, Blair cautioned that if the conflict was triggered by Taiwanese provocations, such as moves toward Taiwan independence, the U.S. would be less likely to become involved. For both the American and Taiwanese governments, the objective is to deter, prevent, and discourage any kind of Chinese aggression by having enough capability and by making it clear that “we would fight if it comes to that,” Blair concluded.

From 2003-2007, Blair participated in Taiwan’s Han Kuang Military Exercises as a senior observer, during which he made suggestions that completed the infrastructure of critical drills. This included the adoption of the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) computerized wargaming system and the Joint Training System (JTS), as noted by Taiwan’s former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min, who now heads the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security, one of the organizers of the wargames.