Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will dial up efforts to polarize Taiwanese society in favor of cross-Taiwan Strait unification and is prepared to go to war if necessary, a group of political analysts said at a forum in Taipei Tuesday.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which opened on Sunday, is likely to give Xi a third, five-year term as CPC general secretary and as chairman of the CPC’s Central Military Commission, the People’s Republic of China’s de facto military commander-in-chief.
Xi is also set to be reappointed as the head of state by the National People’s Congress in March 2023.
In a report Xi delivered to the congress on Sunday, the Chinese leader said Beijing will continue to strive for peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan but would never promise to renounce the use of force.
Analyzing Xi’s speech, Philip Hsu (徐斯勤), director of National Taiwan University’s Center for China Studies, said at Tuesday’s forum that Xi had used some language regarding unifying Taiwan and “realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” that “appeared to be new.”
The phrase “national reunification must be realized and will be realized” in Xi’s speech was meant to increase the level of psychological preparedness among the People’s Liberation Army for an invasion of Taiwan, Hsu told a forum in Taipei.
Whether or not China uses military force to achieve unification with Taiwan would depend on China’s global influence and how much longer Xi plans to stay in power, Hsu said.
If Xi wants to extend his rule for another 10 years and expects China to continue to rise as a global power, he might not be in a rush to seize Taiwan, Hsu said.
However, Xi may recalculate this assessment if he feels this will be his last term in office and China’s global power declines during his tenure, according to Hsu.
Tao Yi-feng (陶儀芬), another panelist at the forum, said the chances of China resorting to military force to take Taiwan in the next five years were slim.
Tao said making a move so soon was unlikely as Beijing faced a difficult task of catching up with the U.S. military.
Furthermore, given Xi’s belief that the world is in an era in which “the East is rising while the West is declining,” as first stated by Chinese media in January last year, Xi would bide his time than risk invading Taiwan, Tao said.
Meanwhile, Beijing will double its efforts in imposing various forms of coercive measures of verbal intimation and saber-rattling against Taiwan, to divide Taiwanese society and shift Taiwan’s public opinion in favor of unification, Tao said.
Beijing might shift its focus from stymieing pro-Taiwan independence forces to bolster advocates for unification, Tao said.
Tuesday’s forum was co-hosted by Center for China Studies of National Taiwan University, the Roy and Lila Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at the Harvard Kennedy School, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Mark Ho (何志偉) and Kuomintang Legislator Johnny Chiang (江啟臣).
Also on Tuesday, New Power Party Chairperson and Legislator Chen Jiau-hua (陳椒華) told a press conference at the Legislature that China held no power to infringe on Taiwan’s rights as a sovereign and democratic nation run under a rules-based system.
Source: Focus Taiwan News Channel