Beijing: China might eventually view a comprehensive amphibious invasion of Taiwan as the only "prudent" strategy for unification, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Defense presented to Congress.
According to Focus Taiwan, the Pentagon's "Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2025," closely mirrors the previous year's report but offers a restructured analysis of China's potential strategies for taking over Taiwan. The report suggests that while Chinese leaders believe in the improving capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for a Taiwan campaign, they remain uncertain about its readiness for a successful invasion, particularly in the face of possible U.S. intervention.
The report describes Beijing's efforts in refining various military options for unification with Taiwan. These range from coercive measures short of war to a full-scale joint island landing campaign (JILC). Such a campaign, involving a large-scale amphibious invasion, is deemed the most decisive yet riskiest option, necessitating complex, coordinated operations to overcome Taiwan's shore defenses and establish a strategic beachhead for further military build-up.
Despite the inherent risks and Beijing's inclination towards less drastic measures, the report notes that China is preparing for a JILC, which might be perceived as the only feasible course for enforced unification. The report acknowledges a lack of information regarding Beijing's assessment of other unification options, suggesting that the decisiveness of a JILC could become increasingly attractive as other options diminish.
The report also revisits three less dramatic strategies outlined in the previous year: coercion short of war, a joint firepower strike campaign, and a joint blockade campaign. Over the past year, the PLA has conducted operations exercising key elements of these strategies, including drills focusing on blockading key ports, targeting sea and land installations, and countering possible U.S. military involvement.
Coercion involves escalating military pressure combined with economic, informational, and diplomatic tools to force Taiwan into submission. This could include cyberattacks, electronic warfare, or conventional strikes against Taiwan's infrastructure, aiming to instill fear and degrade public confidence to push for negotiations on Beijing's terms without full invasion.
The success of this strategy would heavily depend on Taiwan's resilience and willingness to resist, alongside support from the United States and other allies. A joint firepower strike campaign would involve missile and air strikes against key targets to weaken Taiwan's defenses and leadership, requiring complex coordination across PLA services, which might limit its effectiveness.
A joint blockade campaign would aim to isolate Taiwan economically through maritime and air blockades, complemented by missile strikes and potential seizures of offshore islands to coerce Taiwan into negotiation or surrender. However, the report does not evaluate the potential success or failure factors of a blockade strategy.