Washington: The United States can maintain a workable relationship with China as long as Beijing refrains from taking military action against Taiwan or the Philippines, according to former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien.
According to Focus Taiwan, in an audio interview with Foreign Affairs released Thursday, O'Brien highlighted that the current term of his former boss, U.S. President Donald Trump, is focused on rebuilding the U.S. military, securing the southern border, and managing international crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran. Given these priorities, O'Brien stated, "as long as the Chinese stay out of Taiwan and don't invade Taiwan, and hopefully don't invade and take over Scarborough Shoal [a disputed reef in the South China Sea] and invade the Philippines, I think we can probably get along with the Chinese."
O'Brien, who now leads the geopolitical advisory firm American Global Strategies, mentioned that Trump "felt in his gut" that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would not launch an attack on Taiwan or the Philippines during Trump's presidency. After returning from an October meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, Trump reported he had not discussed Taiwan with the Chinese leader. However, in a subsequent 60 Minutes interview, Trump asserted that China would not move against Taiwan while he is president because China's leaders "know the consequences."
Trump commented on the 60 Minutes program, "People were a little surprised at that. He [Xi] never brought it up, because he understands it very well. Taiwan is a very interesting case. It's 69 miles away from China. We're 9,500 miles away. But that doesn't matter. He understands what will happen." Trump also declined to disclose how the U.S. would respond if China attacked Taiwan, stating, "I can't give away my secrets. I don't want to be one of these guys that tells you exactly what's gonna happen if something happens."
In a November 5 article in Foreign Affairs, O'Brien argued that a second Trump administration would restore the "peace through strength" posture of Trump's first term. He highlighted that in addition to the 2026 defense budget, Trump has accelerated defense spending by allocating an additional US$150 billion. "Peace through strength is delivering stability and security," O'Brien remarked.