Tokyo: The anti-Henoko "All Okinawa" camp's 12-year hold on the Okinawa governorship ended Sunday when former Naha Deputy Mayor Genta Koja unseated two-term incumbent Denny Tamaki in a six-candidate race. The conservative-backed 42-year-old candidate won 59.4 percent of valid ballots, primarily campaigning on livelihood issues. However, the local election may have broader implications beyond Okinawa.
According to Focus Taiwan, two scholars indicated that Koja's victory might expedite Japan's defense preparations across its southwestern islands, a development both scholars view as favorable to Taiwan. Lim Chuan-tiong, a research fellow at the University of Tokyo's Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, described Koja's win as "a source of reassurance" for Taiwan amid growing Chinese military pressure. Okinawa Prefecture is strategically located along Japan's southwestern island chain, a crucial section of the first island chain, and the Miyako Strait serves as a significant route into the Pacific for Chinese warships. Koja's willingness to collaborate with Tokyo is expected to facilitate defense efforts in the region.
Kuo Yu-jen, vice president of the Institute for National Policy Research, stated that Koja's victory might ease tensions between Okinawa and Tokyo over base relocation and other defense projects. Kuo noted that prefectural authorities still have the power to delay projects through administrative and environmental procedures.
Lim Chuan-tiong also compared the current political shift to the events of 1998, when anti-base Governor Masahide Ota was defeated following years of legal battles over Henoko and confrontations with Tokyo. Voter fatigue from prolonged disputes and concerns over potential cuts to central government subsidies played a role in the election outcome.
Koja's victory could also complicate China's attempts to exploit local discontent in Okinawa, a tactic referred to by Lim as the "Ryukyu card." This strategy involves Beijing using state-linked media and scholars to question Japan's sovereignty over the Ryukyu Islands. Lim mentioned that Koja's victory leaves Beijing with less room to maneuver, potentially shifting the focus to trade and exchanges while downplaying political status issues.
Kuo traced Japan's current defense direction to its 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines and three key security documents adopted in 2022. Planned revisions aim to enable Japan's Self-Defense Forces to respond more proactively to regional contingencies, including scenarios involving Taiwan. Koja's victory is expected to facilitate the implementation of these strategic plans in Okinawa, which include reorganizing the Ground Self-Defense Force's 15th Brigade, expanding military access to airports and ports, and adding missile sites across the southwestern islands.
Kuo emphasized that the successful implementation of these measures would help deter China's military activities, particularly those of its navy and air force. With the Defense Buildup Program extending through fiscal 2027 and plans to revise key security documents by the end of 2026, Kuo anticipates visible results by 2027.