Taipei: U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth has warned that China may be more likely to impose an economic blockade on Taiwan rather than launch a full-scale military invasion in 2028, arguing such a move could be carried out under the guise of maritime safety.
According to Focus Taiwan, Duckworth made these remarks during a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event in Washington, D.C. She was responding to comments by former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who recently suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping could exploit the simultaneous U.S. and Taiwanese presidential elections in 2028 to attack Taiwan. Duckworth, who serves on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, believes Beijing would be more inclined to pursue an economic blockade strategy.
She revealed that the U.S. Senate conducted tabletop exercises in early 2025 to examine a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, concluding that an economic blockade is more likely than a military assault. Duckworth explained that China could seek to block access to the Taiwan Strait by requiring commercial vessels to report to the Chinese Coast Guard for escort under the pretext of ensuring maritime safety.
Duckworth emphasized that this blockade could be presented "under the guise of safety and security," adding that "that may be something that could happen in 2028." She drew a parallel with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and warned against normalizing restrictions on international waterways.
To deter such a scenario, Duckworth suggested that the United States should continue to demonstrate its commitment to freedom of navigation by sending naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait and encouraging other nations to do the same. She also cautioned that a disruption in shipping through the Taiwan Strait would have a more significant global economic impact than instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Duckworth visited Taiwan from July 6-8, becoming the first U.S. senator to visit the country after the May summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi in Beijing. During her meeting with President Lai Ching-te on July 7, she stated that her visit was intended to demonstrate that U.S. support for Taiwan transcends changes in administrations. This reassurance came amid concerns that improving U.S.-China relations could negatively affect Taiwan.
Furthermore, Duckworth warned that Taiwan's security is a global concern, cautioning that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could cost the world economy as much as US$10 trillion and put more than 7 percent of U.S. GDP at risk. She noted that such an impact would exceed that of the global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic.