Taipei: Taiwan's Ministry of Education (MOE) has projected that first-year university enrollment will fall from 270,000 in 2015 to just 173,000 in 2028, and decline further to 146,000 by 2040.

According to Focus Taiwan, the MOE released a report on Thursday indicating that enrollment dipped during the 2017 academic year due to the "Year of the Tiger effect." This phenomenon refers to a reduction in births in 1998 during this Chinese zodiac year, as traditional cultural beliefs led to fewer births, reducing the number of freshmen to 241,000.

The report noted a slight recovery of 7,000 students in 2018, attributed to the "Year of the Dragon effect." This effect saw an increase in births in 2000 due to positive associations with the Chinese zodiac year. However, this recovery was temporary, and the downward trend soon resumed.

The ministry forecasts a rebound in 2030 with numbers reaching 209,000, spurred by another Year of the Dragon marriage and childbirth boom and a birth encouragement policy implemented in 2011. By 2040, however, the number of freshmen is expected to fall again to 146,000, marking a 27.8 percent decrease from 2024 figures.

The Union of Private School Educators expressed concerns, noting that with only 173,000 new students in 2028, public universities would likely enroll about 120,000. This situation would leave private institutions with only around 50,000 students, potentially supporting just 50 to 60 private universities and colleges, putting about 40 at risk of closure.

The MOE also reported a decline in total university enrollment, which was around 1.1 million before 2016. Between 2019 and 2024, enrollment dropped by 149,000. The ministry predicts that total enrollment will fall below 860,000 in 2025 and reach a low of 838,000 in 2029 due to the Year of the Tiger effect. It is anticipated to rise to 911,000 in 2033 before declining again to 725,000 by 2040.